An ethics inquiry into Tierney’s and his wife’s personal finances — which was just dismissed by the Ethics Committee — and slim margin of victory last cycle make him a top target for both parties in 2014. Republicans and Democrats (at least privately) say they did not expect Tierney to survive last cycle, but he squeaked out a victory thanks to high party turnout in the Bay State.
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. John F. Tierney (9th term)
Primary: Sept. 16, 2014
Primary challenger: Former Marine Seth Moulton
Race rating: Lean Democrat
On paper, Moulton makes for a formidable primary challenger. But Marisa DeFranco, an attorney who lost a 2012 primary to now-Sen. Elizabeth Warren, is also running and could spoil the race for Moulton by shaving off some of the anti-Tierney vote.
In the general, Republicans expect former state Sen. Richard Tisei to run against Tierney again, after losing to the congressman by a single point last cycle. Republicans are confident this cycle because they do not expect Warren’s top-tier Senate race to drive turnout down the ticket.
The primary’s outcome could affect the general election, too. In fact, some Democrats privately confess the party has a better shot at holding the seat if Tierney loses in the primary to Moulton.
Read the original Roll Call article here.